Diesel won’t be only fleet choice within a decade: GE 05 November 2014

As next generation petrol and hybrid engines offer new fuel efficiency and emissions standards, diesel is unlikely to remain the default engine choice for fleets in a decade's time, says GE Capital, Fleet Services.

Gary Killeen, managing director for GE Capital Fleet Services, points to the growing cost and complication of meeting future emissions standards for diesel, which, he says, is creating a development disincentive.

At the same time, new petrol engines are competing closely with diesels on emissions and now returning strong fuel consumption figures, while novel hybrid and electric options are opening up further choices.

Add to that the mood music against diesel vehicles, in terms of air quality, as evidenced in Transport for London's Cleaner Transport for a Cleaner London report, and the trend looks clear.

"The historic popularity of diesel has been driven by very relevant factors such as its petrol-beating CO2 performance, excellent fuel consumption and strong driving characteristics," comments Killeen.

"However, there is growing unease over the effect of diesel on air quality thanks to emissions issues surrounding the level of NOx and PM10,W he continues.

Killeen also says that, while current Euro 6 emissions standards to a large extent reduce some of these problems, concerns remain.

And he adds: "It will be interesting to see the criteria set for diesels in the planned Euro 7 emissions standards, currently proposed for 2020."

For him, future commercial vehicle fleet choices are likely to be all about the new generation of small petrol engines, which have a much lower impact on air quality.

"While these power units are not quite up to diesel standards when it comes to CO2 and fuel consumption, they have closed the gap considerably and are likely to continue to do so," he opines.

"Also, while fleet uptake has been slow, there are a whole range of hybrids now available that are likely to continue to proliferate and offer emissions figures that no conventional diesel or petrol vehicle could hope to meet."

And he points to electric vehicle technology, which is bound to see further development over the next few years, especially in regard to range and battery life.

"Those of us who have been around the industry for some time can remember when petrol was the default choice. The overall switch to diesel took many years and it will take some time for the next overall change to occur.

"However, our estimates are that within another decade, we will be seeing a much wider range of drivetrain technology on fleets. Diesel will continue to be popular but will no longer be the automatic choice."

Author
Brian Tinham

Related Companies
GE Capital Solutions

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