Those figures were released at the LowCVP's (Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership) 2015 annual conference in London yesterday (24 June 2015), which focused on decarbonising transport to improve air quality and meet international obligations for emissions reduction.
Fourteen percent of respondents to LowCVP's survey of experts ('Energy for Future Transport', conducted by market researcher Turquoise Thinking) already drive a hybrid or battery electric vehicle, but the AA's latest Populus Poll (among 300,000 member drivers) shows less than 1% of the population already owning a non-petrol or diesel vehicle.
Indeed. AA president Edmund King revealed that 58% of respondents to its survey will probably choose petrol cars (in line with today's choice) and 33% diesel (down from t 41% currently buyers react to the bad popular press around diesel).
However, according to LowCVP's research among automotive specialists, in the longer term (beyond 20 years) most expect to be driving vehicles powered by hydrogen – although they also say petrol and diesel vehicles will provide the mainstay of road transport in the short- to medium-term, with hybrids taking an increasing share.
LowCVP's 2015 conference was partly devoted to considering whether the FIA's final e-Prix in its first Formula E series championship – due to run this weekend in Battersea Park, with 60,000 spectators – might accelerate the uptake of new technology vehicles and electrify mainstream motoring.
Speaking at the conference, Alejandro Agag, chief executive of FIA Formula E, said it could – pointing to a survey from the last race event, in Miami, which showed 99% of respondents changing their views in favour of electric cars after the race.
"Advanced technology comes from motor sport and today this is important for green mobility [so] motorsport is the right instrument to push forward that agenda," he stated.
However, Agag added: "People will only massively buy electric vehicles when they are better and cheaper than conventional ones. They will not just buy them because they are environmentally friendly."
But the conference also reviewed future mobility more generally, and specifically in cities, focusing on how to accelerate the uptake of hybrid and pure electric vehicles in urban centres.
The AA's King suggested that there needs to be a change of mindset around electric cars – particularly around families' second cars.
"Seventy four per cent of second vehicles are parked on drives on in garages so these vehicles could be charged overnight," he observed.
"Also, the vast majority of second car owners do not travel over 200 miles ni a day – so they do not need to worry about the charging infrastructure or these cars' ranges."
The argument, he said, should be simply one of paying a little more upfront for electric vehicles, but then reaping the benefits of very low running costs – provided upstream electricity generation could be decarbonsed.
LowCVP is currently investigating the potential for innovative 'L-Category' (smaller two and three-wheeled city) vehicles for UK cities.
"Our survey results show that the LowCVP's project and programme activities are focusing on the right areas, but that there is still a great deal of work to do," commented Andy Eastlake, LowCVP's managing director.
"It also shows that there are a wide range of technologies which expert stakeholders think could play a part in the future," he continues.
"It's important, I think, that policy focuses on cutting carbon and remains as technology-neutral as possible, to allow this variety to thrive."